Það er alveg ljóst að þrátt fyrir dómsdagsspár andstæðinga ESB og Evrusvæðisins þá mun evran lifa kreppuna af. Enda er ekki vilji til annars að það verði útkoman í Evrópu. Á þetta var bent í grein á CNBC fyrir nokkrum mánuðum síðan auk annara fjölmiðla, en ég held að þessi greinar hafi ekki fengið neina birtingu á Íslandi.
On December 16 2010, European heads of government solemnly declared that they were „ready to do whatever is required“ to protect the euro zone. Words are cheap. Skeptics may wonder whether to take them seriously. In this case, they should. The euro zone is highly likely to survive, albeit not without further turbulence. I would advance three arguments: first, the euro zone is backed by a profound political commitment; second, the long-term interests of participating countries are behind it; and, finally, the members can afford it. In short, the euro zone has the will and the wherewithal to keep the euro experiment afloat.
An interesting new report: „Europe will work“, published by Nomura Global Economics under the direction of John Llewellyn and Peter Westaway makes the case. As it reminds readers, the euro zone is the product of a process of European integration that began in the aftermath of the second world war. Even for today’s leaders, this remains an existential project, even though the memories of the war have faded in their populations. Moreover, the premise that economic integration would create powerful interests for its perpetuation has also proved correct. Finally, the consequences of even a partial break- up of the euro zone are unknowable and frightening. Only in extreme circumstances would European leaders contemplate this step.
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Even so, debt restructurings are no mortal threat to the euro zone. It is important to remember, that Greece, Ireland and Portugal amount to only 6 percent of euro zone GDP. Even Spain is only 11 percent. Moreover, overall euro zone public debt is only 84 percent of GDP, while its fiscal deficit is 6 percent. Both numbers are better than those of the US.
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Nánar um þetta hérna fyrir neðan.
Why the Euro Zone Will Survive (CNBC)
Why the Euro Will Survive (WSJ)
Yes, the euro will survive (The Economist)
Fyrir þá sem hafa verið að tala gjaldfellinu íslensku krónunar sem bjargvætt þá er í greinni hérna að ofan (Why the Euro Will Survive) bent á þann galla sem gjaldfelling gjaldmiðils hefur á efnahag viðkomandi lands. Þetta er eitthvað sem íslendingar ættu að athuga mun betur en þeir hafa gert í dag.
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The often deep-rooted faith in the healing properties of currency devaluations is misplaced. Devaluation can help temporarily, but over time it tends to spawn higher wage demands and inflation, which in turn guzzle up any competitive advantage gained. It is salutary to recall the periods of devaluation in Greece, Portugal, or even Spain and Italy, and ask whether it would really benefit these countries to step back into the past.
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Þetta er núna að farið að gerast á Íslandi. Verðbólgan er á leiðinni upp, einnig vextir og verðlag. Það munu allir óska sér að vera lausir við íslensku krónuna eftir þrjú til fimm ár þegar ástandið verður orðið mjög slæmt ef allt fer á versta veg. Eins og það svo gjarnan vill gera á Íslandi.